This is a guest post from contest winner Jason Gao.
Barely a week after the trade deadline is not the ideal time to analyze the trades. But fans (like me) are very prone to making snap decisions. So I will. I will look at some of the more important deadline deals, see how they’ve worked out so far, and give my biased predictions. I will only look at the deals that involved playoff contenders and aren’t really, really insignificant (like the Mark Kotsay trade).
1. Nick Johnson (Nationals) to Florida for former 1st rounder Aaron Thompson
I like prospects, minor leagues and all that, but I can’t really evaluate their performance as well. I will give you this quote from Kevin Goldstein’s Twitter, “1st round pick in ’05; slow to develop, average stuff at best, doesn’t miss bets, maybe loogy in the end, MAYBE.” Not too flattering.
I’ll just stick to looking at Nick Johnson. When Florida acquired him, they were hoping to get a solid bat and terrific on base percentage.
Since the trade, he has hit .348/.566/.522 with 1 HR, 3 K, and 10 BB in 8 games. That is pretty darn good and the Marlins must be thrilled.
My expectations going forward:
Not that good but solid. I like the former Yankees top prospect, and a .300/.420/.520 line going forward is similar to his best seasons. This trade has little to no impact on the Yankees, as the Marlins are not that likely to make the playoffs. I just like Nick Johnson. You should, too.
2. In two separate trades, the Rockies get Joe Beimel and Rafael Betancourt for minor leaguers Connor Graham, Ryan Mattheus, and Robinson Fabian.
It’s harder for me to evaluate the relievers since I never watch Rockies games. But looking at the their stats, I’ll try my best.
Beimel: With the Nats, 3.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .253 BAA, 25 K, 14 BB, 39.7 Inn. He’s a lefty, but held right-handed hitters to a .258 BAA with the Nationals. So far he’s pitched 2.7 innings with the Rockies, .111 BAA, 3.38 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, and 1 HR in 4 games. That one home run and blown save in his second Rockie outing probably didn’t endear him to the fans. Going forward, though, I expect him to pitch to a 4.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .270 BAA. Those numbers aren’t pretty, but his home/road splits with the Nationals are even uglier. Look them up: http://tinyurl.com/mhagfd.
Betancourt: For years, this guy was a dominant set-up man for the Indians. Then came 2008, when his ERA ballooned over 5.00. In 2009, he got back on track, although not quite as dominant as before, he posted a 3.52 ERA with 32 strikeouts in just over 30 innings. He did have 15 walks, though. Since arriving in Colorado, he has been rock-solid. No runs in 6 innings, 4 strikeout, 2 walks, and 3 holds. Although it’s Coors Field, this is also the National League, so more dominance can be expected. Prediction: ERA around 2.00 with a 2.5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, and just over a K per inning for the rest of the season.
This trade affects the Yankees a little, as the Rockies are one of the better bets to win the Wild Card. And those two can make up a pretty solid bullpen alongside Huston Street.
3. The 4 Red Sox trades that resulted in Victor Martinez, Casey Kotchman, and Chris Duncan. Key players that were moved elsewhere are Julio Lugo and Adam LaRoche.
Duncan: I don’t really care what he does, and neither should you. Like his bro Shelley, he’s a big guy who can hit the occasional bomb, but isn’t terribly reliable for anything else other than helping out in fights. Expectations: AAAA player like Shelley. But not as cool because of his team.
Lugo: For all the crap he got in Boston, he wasn’t that bad of a hitter this year. With the Sox, he hit .284/.352/.367 with 18 K and 12 BB. This guy is a shortstop, so that isn’t horrible. Luckily for all the sadistic Yankees fans out there, like Renteria, Lugo has decided he will hit like an All-Star with the Cardinals. In 14 games and 55 at bats, he’s collected 1 homer, 5 doubles, 3 TRIPLES, and a triple slash line of .345/.383/.600. For my own pleasure, I will predict .300/.370/.470 line (like in Tampa) with 30 SB a year for the rest of his contract. I really do not like the Red Sox.
Kotchman: Acquired for fellow 1B Adam LaRoche, Kotchman is regarded as the better defender and contact hitter. No good stats to predict first basemen’s defense, but he sure hasn’t hit for contact thus far. A .111 batting average, .200 on base average, and 5:1 K:BB ratio is horrible for a supposed contact hitter. At least he had that little 2-run home run a few days ago. Because he plays for the Red Sox, I don’t expect any better in the limited playing time he will get.
LaRoche: Another guy who will let us laugh the Red Sox misfortune. You know that offense that Boston is in dire need of? They just traded it away. Since going back to the Braves, he’s hit .344/.436/.469. Theo Epstein FTW. This guy is as streaky as anyone, so I expect him to keep on this tear until the end of the year. Then, the Red Sox will trade a solid prospect for him, and he will start 2010 ice cold. And, of course, they’ll trade him again, only to have him produce another stellar second half for another team.
Martinez: OK. He’s actually good. He hit a pretty big home run (at the time). He’s got a .932 OPS with the Red Sox. But his career OPS is only .833, which is great for a catcher, but he’ll probably play 1B a lot with the Sox, so he’ll lose value. He will catch for them next year, and the media will compare him to Joe Mauer and Johnny Bench. But in reality, he’ll hit and defend more like a nearly 40 year-old Jorge Posada – just less savvy, but a lot grittier.
5. Potential playoff teams from the NL West trade one of the top 5 prospects for very good role players.
Freddy Sanchez: Acquired by the Giants for Tim Alderson. Alderson was a first round pick and is generally regarded as a good pitching prospect with fine breaking pitches. His velocity is generally in the lower 90’s, leading to a projected ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Sanchez is a former batting champ who can play multiple infield positions. Fangraphs tells me he is an above-average 2B and 3B, but well below-average SS. That’s okay, though, because the Giants want him to be a 2B and hit. Hit he has. With the Giants, he’s got 1 home run in 30 at bats and a line of .367/.406/.500. That’s unsustainable. I’ll predict a .315/.350/.450 going forward. That’s above his career average, but playing for a winning team instead of the Pirates can do wonders. Just look at Eric Hinske (1.267 OPS with the Yankees).
George Sherrill: A closer for the Orioles, he will set-up for Jonathon Broxton with the Dodgers. Sherrill was acquired for 3B Josh Bell and RHP Steve Johnson. What I know about the prospects is the Josh Bell is a high-ceiling hitter who is in the midst of a breakout season. That is good for the Orioles since 3B was arguably their weakest position in the future. Sherrill in the National League, as expected, has pitched greatly. He has yet to give up a run and has 5 strikeouts in 4.7 innings to go with a .188 BAA. For the next two months or so, I predict he will continue the trend of AL pitchers getting better in the NL and pitch to a 1.50 ERA and a little over a strikeout per inning.
Despite being in the National League both of these trades could impact the Yankees a whole lot. First, the Orioles now are starting to look like a potential threat … in 5 years. But the Giants and Dodgers are among the teams most likely to face the Yankees in the World Series. The Giants have a phenomenal 1-2 in the rotation with Lincecum and Cain, which could make them devastating in the playoffs. Sanchez fills two weaknesses at 2B and in the batting lineup. The Dodgers have just strengthened what was already a fine all-round team.
6. AL Central rivals attempt to bolster their rotations.
Jake Peavy: Injured now, the White Sox hope to get him back in the –tember months. They gave up a plethora of young prospects including 1st rounder Aaron Poreda and Dexter Carter. Poreda is a lefty that throws gas but offers little in terms of secondary pitches. Carter is described by Goldstein as, “has size (6-6), mid-90s heat, nice curve.” The other two guys were Clayton Richard and Adam Russell. Peavy is obviously a tremendous pitcher when healthy. He’s not healthy, though, which will be a problem. I don’t expect him to be effective at all for the rest of the year. The White Sox will get criticized heavily. But Kenny Williams will show his genius when Peavy plays out the rest of his long contract in good health, making the All-Star team every year with a sub-3.50 ERA, 180+ K, and 15+ wins a year, as the White Sox become wins the Central multiple times. He won’t, though, be as dominant as before because he will no longer pitch in the NL or in Petco.
Jarrod Washburn: This trade won’t end up as well as the Peavy one. Washburn is a free agent at the end of the year, so the Tigers are hoping he can help this year. He hasn’t looked good so far. In fact, he’s been putrid with the Tigers. In 2 starts, he has 0 wins, an 8.74 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, .348 BAA, 5 K, 3 BB, and given up 4 HR. Obviously, I cannot be reasonable and expect that this continue. I really don’t care who wins the Central, so I can’t be biased either. I’ll predict a 4.50 ERA and .500 record for the rest of his starts. He won’t help or hurt the Tiger’s chances. Luckily, it seems they didn’t give up as much to get him. The Tigers dealt young lefties Luke French and Mauricio Robles. Goldstein describes French as a, “big, thick LHP, 88-92 mph from hi 3/4 slot, decent slider, true plus change, good athlete and fielder.” He writes that Robles is a, “small lefty with a big arm, 90-94 mph with +command, breaking ball flashes plus, prob. bullpen in end.”
Both trades will have an impact on the Yankees season and future. The most obvious is that Peavy will be a force in the American League. Second, Washburn was considered by the Yankees, and we can be thankful it didn’t happen. Third, these two teams are the most likely ALDS opponents of the Yankees. But we all know they’ll get swept.
7. Yankees get Jerry Hairston, Jr. for Chase Weems
No one else but Yankees fans will see this as significant. But Hairston provides a monumental upgrade over Ransom, and is a better defender than A-Rod and Swisher. He’s got very pretty numbers so far with a triple slash line of .400/.538/.400. A reasonable, unbiased fan will say that’s unsustainable and predict a line closer to .270/.320/.400. But I’m not an unbiased fan. I’m a huge homer, so I’ll say he hits the average of those to lines – .335/.429/.400. That’s still very, very, very good. And he’ll get one or two walk-off hits in the playoffs and make some key defensive plays.
You probably learned absolutely nothing from this post other than which teams I like and don’t like. But my goal was to make us Yankee fans feel even better after the sweep by showing how the Yankees trade has looked good, while the Red Sox have looked stupid. The other things are thrown in to make it look like there is more to baseball than Yankees-Red Sox.